Is Domestic Oil Expansion the Future?
Fossil resources are fundamental to the energy infrastructure of the United States. Discourse surrounding fossil fuel reliance is shaped by concerns over two central topics: the geopolitical context revolving around it and the climate change caused by it. Policymakers have reached contradicting conclusions. Is renewable energy the solution to fossil fuel dependence? Or is an increased domestic supply the only way out of a turbulent global market?
The new Trump administration brings with it plans for the latter. The promise of energy independence fuels their ambition for domestic oil expansion. The concept seems simple: more domestic resources means less reliance on those imported, which is expected to lower fuel costs. Because of this, energy independence is purported to have the power to regulate inflation, which garners ample public support, especially from those struggling with rising costs.
While domestic oil expansion is often touted as a path to economic prosperity, there is reasonable doubt about the integrity of those claims. Can more drilling, extraction, and oil truly secure a stable future for a nation?
Domestic Production
Public Land Leasing
28% of U.S. territory is federally owned (Geltman, 2016). Federal land management is delegated to numerous governmental bodies with varying responsibilities and goals, such as the National Park Service (NPS). Located within their jurisdiction are abundant oil and gas reserves, which are available for purchase by private entities.
The selling of mineral rights and leasing of public land has been practiced by land-managing federal agencies since their inception. Private entities that purchase the resources may lease the land overtop for the development of drilling facilities. Oil and gas extracted via these split-estates account for a respective 12% and 11% of the nation’s production, excluding offshore facilities (Prest, 2024).
Oil drillers are incentivized to lease public rather than private lands by the relatively low costs. While private land leases cost several thousand dollars per acre, the price per acre of public land can be as low as $2 (Geltman, 2016).
The Shale Revolution
Despite concerns about cultural landscapes, public land drilling has been expanding for two decades. In 2004, nearly 2,000 new wells were drilled on public land, and that number quickly jumped to over 5,000 new wells in 2006 (Prest, 2024). The rapid climb of leasing rates can be attributed to the shale revolution of the 21st century.
Shale oil is oil that permeates sedimentary rock, often deep within the Earth. Once considered ‘nuisance gas’ for its inaccessibility, these resources have more than doubled U.S. reserves since technological developments – namely fracking and horizontal drilling – have become more commonplace (Nahkle, 2024). U.S. crude oil production reached its peak in 1972, but the shale revolution has extended the timeline by several decades. Even so, projections from the International Energy Agency predict that shale production will peak within the encroaching 2030s (Nakhle, 2024).
Modern Energy Independence
For each year of Trump’s previous presidency, 1.1 to 2.2 million acres of federal land were leased (Prest, 2024). In 2018, the U.S. became a net exporter of fossil fuels, achieving the long-awaited state of energy independence (Nahkle, 2024). However, the expansion did not stop there.
In 2023, America’s production rate reached its highest level in history, with over 21.69 million barrels of petroleum extracted per day (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024). Contrary to common belief, energy independence is not defined by an isolated market that supports the American energy sector.
The U.S. produces 1 million more barrels than it consumes each day, yet it continues to rely on imports from 86 countries and to export a majority of what is domestically produced (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024). The United States has become the largest exporting nation on Earth. Energy independence, as pursued by the U.S. government, is not about meeting domestic supply; it’s about dominance in the inherently global market.
Political Context
Public Support
At-pump prices of gasoline have increased around 50% over the last five years (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024). American households have consequently been cast into financial struggle, and many are looking toward energy independence as the solution. While renewable energy sources remain the most popular option, support for expanding domestic drilling has increased over the last four years. Currently, 44% of U.S. voters prefer oil expansion over renewables (Kennedy & Tyson, 2024).
Claims about energy independence and the economic bliss it brings are foundational to Trump’s platform. He promises a “large-scale decline in prices” as a result of domestic oil and gas production “at levels that nobody’s ever seen before” (Nahkle, 2024). Right-leaning voters believe these claims. 32% ranked “the economy” as a pivotal issue that inspired support for Trump (Potts, 2024).
Economic anxiety directly affects federal drilling practices. According to the NPS, when fuel costs increase, leasing and drilling rates increase as a direct result (Geltman, 2016).
Feigning Scarcity
The anxiety-driven demand for oil contrasts with reality. There is no historical pattern to suggest that increased domestic production influences inflation rates. Fuel costs are subject to a complex global market, and the rising price of oil is observed to be a result of inflation, not the cause of it.
Despite this reality, Big Oil continues to inflame economic anxiety as an advertising ploy. In 2023, pro-oil advertisers who will not name their affiliates, pushed a multimillion-dollar campaign that blamed California’s renewable energy investments for the increased cost of living, claiming it to have decreased the oil supply (Mulkern, 2023).
However, there is no oil scarcity. Resource extraction is at an all-time high, with still more leases in development. Nevertheless, inflation continues to rise.
Closing Thoughts…
The idyllic energy independence promised by Trump and his Big-Oil supporters is a lie that inspires the nation to continue its procrastination toward renewables. The fact remains that petroleum is exhaustible and is estimated to peak within the next two decades. Renewables aren’t simply the best option, they are the only option.
Landscapes and communities are being destroyed in the name of energy independence. All the while, the inevitable peak of extraction encroaches closer.
Works Cited
Geltman, E. A. G. (2016). OIL & GAS DRILLING IN NATIONAL PARKS. Natural Resources Journal, 56(1), 145–192. http://www.jstor.org/stable/24889113
Mulkern, A. (2024, March 18). Oil-friendly ad blitz targets California climate policies. Consumer Watchdog. https://consumerwatchdog.org/in-the-news/ee-news-oil-friendly-ad-blitz-targets-calif-climate-policies-2/
Nakhle, C. (2024, September 16). U.S. shale oil and gas: From independence to dominance. GIS Reports. https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/shale-oil/
Potts, M. (2024, November 14). Why voters chose Trump. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/538/voters-chose-trump/story?id=115827243
Prest, B. (2024, September 3). How much would expanding federal oil and gas leasing increase global carbon emissions?. Resources for the Future. https://www.rff.org/publications/issue-briefs/federal-permitting-reform-expand-oil-and-gas-leasing-carbon-emissions/
Tyson, A., & Kennedy, B. (2024, October 10). How Americans feel about hydraulic fracturing for oil and Gas. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/10/10/how-americans-feel-about-hydraulic-fracturing-for-oil-and-gas/
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2024, March 29). How much of the crude oil produced in the United States is consumed in the United States? U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=268&t=6
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2025, March 31). Petroleum and other liquids. U.S. Department of Energy. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/leafhandler.ashx?f=m&n=pet&s=emm_epm0_pte_nus_dpg
